Bloody surf forcasts.

by **Stone Fox** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:09 am

For the last day or two, this weekend coming was looking pretty tasty according to magicseaweed. I've planned a trip down to the coast for the weekend with some mates that want to get into surfing...

Come home tonight and the surf forecast has changed from good, to the worst I think I've ever seen on msw...

Grrrrr.....

**Sponsor**

by **dougirwin13** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:45 am

Urm... Do your own

Figure out your local swell window and watch the lows in it. Also watch the virtual buoys for swell and local wind.

Sometimes I corss-check with some local forecatss/reports. But I mostly go on my own these days.

-doug

by **tomcat360** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:05 am

I have found that NOAA bouys mixed with some knowledge from wetsand.com

It's proven it's self. This weekend it was strraight on, but nobody else picked up on it.

It was funny listening to the guys saying "Where are these waves coming from?!?!"

by **Dec** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 4:04 am

http://magicseaweed.com/Phuket-Surf-Rep ... gRange/uk/

Argh, stupid wind and big waves!

Means I wil be stuck at home

by **drowningbitbybit** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:43 am

Stone Fox wrote:For the last day or two, this weekend coming was looking pretty tasty according to magicseaweed.

Its been obvious this weekend wasnt going to work since the middle of last week

Dont take MSW at face value - learn how to do it yourself.

by **Phil** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:51 am

i agree with matt it was obvious after friday it was gonna go flat for a few days

the thing about magicseaweed is its just the open ocean data you need to take into account the beach your surfing, the tides, the winds to get an idea of what the surfs gonna be like

for example 4ft @ 10secs might well produce a 3ft wave on the push

4ft @ 5 would be flatt

theres so much info on magicseaweed about doing your own forcast how to inturpret the data

also worth picking up a copy of surf science by tony butt just started reading would recomend it to everyone

by **drowningbitbybit** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:00 am

This should tell you everything you need to know...

Lovely weather (best in the east)
Rubbish surf. Probably only a foot on the push :roll:

Time to get the BBQs and beers out

by **kitesurfer** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:07 am

drowningbitbybit wrote:Time to get the BBQs and beers out

What a good idea!

by **Phil** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:15 am

kitesurfer wrote:
drowningbitbybit wrote:Time to get the BBQs and beers out :D

What a good idea!

ill keep an eye out for the smoke sginals

i can see the news now

"fireman called to house in poole when smoke engulfed the street from out of controll BBQ, officals report that no one was hurt in the incedent but a few burgers and a sassuage got rather burnt"

by **kitesurfer** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:32 am

Phil wrote:
kitesurfer wrote:
drowningbitbybit wrote:Time to get the BBQs and beers out

What a good idea!

ill keep an eye out for the smoke sginals

i can see the news now

"fireman called to house in poole when smoke engulfed the street from out of controll BBQ, officals report that no one was hurt in the incedent but a few burgers and a sassuage got rather burnt"

Have you been out drinking with "i'd rather be surfing" phil? Controll, incedent, sassuage!!!

KS

by **Phil** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:44 am

no just to lazy to correct my typos

by **PapaW** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:56 am

Don't even bother looking at the stars/bars for ratinging. its doesn't work like that. use the swell and wind data only and applie it to the local spot. Also incorporate it with other forceast models. I use the NOAA swell data withthe WindGuru wind data. Super accurate. up to 3 days. anything more and its just a idea of what can happen.

by **Stone Fox** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:05 am

hmmm.... Can anyone point me in the direction of where to find all the info I'd need please?

And by "on the push" you mean the couple of hours before high tide right?

Btw, do you think there'll be anything worth surfing on Friday? (I'm planning on going to Croyde)

by **Phil** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:12 am

on the push is normaly about an hour after low tide as the tide starts coming in

by **drowningbitbybit** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:39 am

Stone Fox wrote:Btw, do you think there'll be anything worth surfing on Friday? (I'm planning on going to Croyde)

Friday might be quite nice in a very small summery kind of way, with a couple of foot on the push (maybe). But the best times are going to be very early in the morning, or well into the evening.

And the swell will be fading all the time, so it might be flat....

After that - zip, nada, nothin'

by **drowningbitbybit** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:47 am

Stone Fox wrote:hmmm.... Can anyone point me in the direction of where to find all the info I'd need please?

Ive just trawled through some of my ramblings, and this is something I posted six months ago....

Lots of charts at...
magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/

Or the basic pressure charts at...
www.met-office.gov.uk/weather/charts/index

And the very quick guide to forecasting...

This is from the weekend just gone -

A - Low pressure out to the west of the UK sending waves towards us. The more lines (isobars) there are, the deeper the low, and the bigger the waves.

B - A bit of distance to travel. This means the waves clean up, and the strong winds arent on top of the waves which would muck things up.

C - A high pressure to the east of us (this isnt a very good high pressure). This should give gentle winds and maybe even some sunshine.

The track of the winds will follow an anti-clockwise direction around the centre of the low (basically following the isobars) so you can tell when its going to be onshore (bad) or offshore (good).

To work out which beach you need to be at you need to remember that waves will travel 'out' from the centre of the low so a direct line between the low and for instance devon will give big waves. But if its a real deep depression then the swell can wrap around so the south coast might get some, or if the low if further north it can wrap around ireland and get to devon and cornwall.

Oh, one last thing - the other thing you need to look at is the period. This is the gap between waves (and you can predict it, or find it on magic seaweed). A period of <10seconds will mean choppy waves coming at you without any real shape, while >10 seconds, and preferably 15s, means between the waves will be nice and clean - easy to paddle out, nice to sit in, and good shape waves when they arrive

Okay, thats the basics... there's a lot more to it than that, but that should do you for now! :wink:

And just to add that you need to be looking at tides as well, particularly in summer when its small. The swell will tend to pick up on the push (an hour or two after low tide as it begins to push in). And of course you need some local knowledge as to which break you should be at for shelter from the wind, the beach that will pick up the swell etc etc.

by **drowningbitbybit** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:13 am

Surf faded as quickly as feared - all gone...... :roll:

Lovely weather though. Tonight I shall be drinking beer next to my local break (the River Thames, at the pretty end)

by **iomarti** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:17 am

ah well that should have been you in the purple van in kernow...

surf is looking really promising for next week here..

by **drowningbitbybit** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:52 am

iomarti wrote:surf is looking really promising for next week here..

Maybe.... that low pressure isnt looking nearly as strong as originally forecast so it'll be small, but hopefully there should be a wave *cross fingers*

I'll be back in the van and travelling again next week if it looks like the west will hold onto a wave

by **Phil** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:57 am

tuesday and wensday *might* see a wave, i blame ireland though allways blocks most of the swell

Bloody surf forcasts.

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